Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of on environment society also increase considerably. Monitoring early warning systems for rely several indicators; however, assessments how these indicators are linked to still lacking. Here, we explore links between different within six sub-regions in Spain. We used impact data from European Impact Report Inventory database provide a new case study evaluate links. evidence region with small sample size can useful insights regarding indicator–impact As meteorological indicators, use Standardised Precipitation Index Evapotranspiration Index; as agricultural hydrological Soil Water Content Streamflow Reservoir Storage Index. teleconnection patterns surface temperature by conducting correlation analysis, then test predictability using random forest model. Our results show indices best occurrences overall at long timescales 15 33 months. However, find robust indices, depending sub-region. The Arctic Oscillation, Western Mediterranean North Atlantic Oscillation accumulation periods (15 48 months) top predictors northwestern northeastern regions, community Madrid, southern Spain, respectively. impacts. model produces skilful models most sub-regions. When assessed cross-validation all precision, recall, or R2 values higher than 0.97, 0.62, 0.68, Thus, our predicting could potentially be part an system.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1607-7938', '1027-5606']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022